May 11, 2022
Its that time of year again, when I stumble through my predictions for 2021. I don’t think anyone could have predicted how 2020 (the vision year) unfolded, or how its impact changed the way we work, play and learn.
Many times I mentioned that the beginning of 2020 showed so much promise. A feeling of rebirth. A notion that this next decade was going to forge new trends. Then Covid-19 hit, and our lives were never going to be the same. They say that a crisis accelerates a trend which already existed into warp speed.
OFFICE SPACE
There was already a trend out there to move from communal offices spaces (like Google and Silicon Valley start-ups) to more individual closed spaces. Companies seemed to be absorbing new office space at an alarming rate, and there was a movement towards more efficient space, less space, flex space, etc. Now, under this new normal, employers are looking to decrease their spacial footprint, with a mindset of how valuable an in-person connection is.
VIDEO CONFERENCING
Zoom, Microsoft Teams and Google Meet were already in existence. It took a pandemic for these tools to become mainstream.
THE DIGITAL TRANSACTION
Paperless and e-signature platforms had been well used prior to Covid-19, however they went from being a tool to becoming essential.
VIRTUAL SHOWINGS AND THE END OF THE SUNDAY OPEN HOUSE
In-person showings have always been prominent in our business, but the virtual showing has probably phased out the Open House as we know it.
GETTING OUT OF DODGE - SUBURBAN MIGRATION
The desire for more space, pools, a large yard and outdoor cooking. Remember, the word ‘STAY-CAY’ has been in our vocabulary for a few years now, and our homes as sanctuary was a trend that just became excelerated. There has always been a back and forth from downtown to suburbia and suburbia to downtown. Millennials are one of the largest home buying demographics. They are getting married now, having children and need more space.
E-COMMERCE
This was trending already, and now its exploding. Door dash, Uber Eats and Skip-the-Dishes were fringe services with a definite following. Post-COVID they will be ingrained in the fabric of our eating habits.
WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE 2021?
I am a firm believer that how you end the year has a lot to do with how the next year will take shape. If last quarter sales are any indication, we are in for a rousing start to next year. Multiple offers are still going to continue through New Years Eve and appointments for the period are up over 80%. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) expects average home prices to increase by 9% next year. (2021 Canadian average home price $620,400). CREA also predicts there will be a 7% increase in unit sales as well, barely keeping up with demand.
The V-shaped recovery in real estate that we experienced last year was unprecedented. The pandemic crisis of 2020 was very different than those of the past. In the 2008-09 crisis, consumers felt the pain throughout each income category. In 2020 according to Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, approximately 65% of the Canadian population was not negatively impacted financially. During the 1990/91 recession Canadian residential unit sales dropped by 7%, and in 2008/09 they dropped nearly 4%.
Today, businesses and households are sitting on $170 Billion in excess cash. That means they are going to spend it somewhere. Households are sitting with approximately $90 Billion - where will that get parked? Travel, (eventually), cars, home renovations, and buying properties of course.
As we in Ontario sit patiently through another lockdown, more of these trends will become the new norm. Many consumers who had a 'wait and see' attitude toward buying or selling will probably wake up on January 2nd, 2021 and put a plan in place, be it virtually or in-person.
We have another year ahead of us to really make a difference in our client’s lives as we navigate this new normal. Please remember all those safety protocols we put in place in the early part of the pandemic. As we face this new lockdown, the only difference is there is a light at the end of this tunnel. Mark my words it won’t be business as usual anymore....it will be better.