Most of us go about our lives with the simplest of intentions, don’t get me wrong our lives are complicated but given the choice we would rather learn by osmosis than pull an all nighter learning a complex concept. If you were to tell me that when I was a second year McMaster student, taking Economic History under the late Dr. Peter George who served as President and Vice Chancellor of McMaster University for 15 years, that I would ever use the word ‘tariff’ in a sentence later in my life, I would have told you the chances of that are slim to none!!!

Dr. George had a very commanding personality and was well versed in the content of this course as his research focused on economic history, particularly in Canadian and American contexts. He spoke of government subsidies and tariffs in and around the trade of the proverbial guns and butter. Fast forward to today, and one of the most searched terms on Google is the word ‘tariff’. Judging from this term’s significance and the uncertainty which surrounds it, maybe taking economic history including the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 (we all know how that turned out, the Great Depression of 1933), should be mandatory if you want to be president of the United States or a leader of any country for that matter.

My love of the science of decision making and what are barriers to how people consume goods and services was born of the teachings of Dr George, and an economist named Herbert Simon. Simon challenged the long standing belief of ‘perfect rationality’, which simply means we all possess the ability to process all relevant information, with the assumption that we have access to near perfect information and the ability to play out all the consequences of our decisions. Simon highlighted that uncertainty about the future and the ability to acquire credible information (sound familiar) leads to a limiting effect when it comes to decision-making. Simon refers to an environment where we have unlimited cognitive capacity plus perfect information leads to optimal decision making and therefore the person making the decision will always make the best possible action to achieve their goals. It’s kinda like the theory around girl math. 

Then along came Daniel Kahneman, who is widely regarded as the father of the study of psychological decision-making and behavioral economics. His groundbreaking work with Amos Tversky, identified 5 different theory’s behind our economic decision making and earned him a Nobel prize in 2002. Some of these may seem familiar to you so what I decided to do was to put these theories to the test when it comes to one of the biggest economic decisions we can make - to buy and/or sell a property and furthermore, how to utilize these theories to help draw your attention to the content and practices you need to incorporate into your business to ensure success for your clients.

Loss Aversion

People feel the pain of losses more intensely than the pleasure of equivalent gains. For example, if a buyer of a condominium found out that a condo in the same building they bought in sold for less per square foot than the one they just bought they would be heart broken. Even if their real estate agent explained that the other unit had an inferior view and that they have already gained 2% in value from the time they bought until today. In other words losing $100 hurts more than gaining $100 feels good.

Do any of these loss aversion examples sound familiar?

1. A homeowner refuses to sell their property at the current market value at the same or lower than their original purchase price, even if holding onto the property incurs ongoing high costs.
2. Buyers bid aggressively in competitive markets to avoid the “loss” of missing out on their dream home.
3. Investors hesitate to sell underperforming rental property, fearing the emotional impact of realizing a capital loss.
4. Sellers set an unrealistically high list prices to avoid the perceived loss of equity, especially if they are moving up in value.
5. Buyers prioritize avoiding the regret of mortgage rates dropping further, when they wait for mortgage rates to drop, rather than buying during a market dip/correction.

How to Counter Loss Aversion with Tools and Content

• Provide articles or videos explaining the long-term benefits of selling at market value, even if it involves a loss, to free up capital for better investments.
• Share listing data where listings followed the market with a series of reductions and cancelations, showcase how saleable 60 day and 90 day inventory really is.
• Create calculators/spreadsheets that show potential gains from reinvesting proceeds into better-performing assets.
• Highlight success stories of sellers who accepted losses but benefited from reinvesting in growing markets.
• Lean on professional advice from accountants, financial advisors and mortgage specialists to objectively assess the financial impact of holding versus selling and create content around their advice.

Reference Dependence

Decisions are made relative to a reference point, what they just spent to re-shingle their roof, rather than the expectation of a buyer of not having to replace a roof right after they purchase a home. These so called gains and losses are highly guesstimated and come from different vantage points. 

Do any of these reference dependence examples sound familiar?

1. A buyer evaluates a property’s value based on their current rent payments rather than looking at short and long term value appreciation and principal pay down. 
2. Sellers tie their asking price to the amount they spent on renovations, regardless of whether the market supports that value.
3. Sellers/Investors base decisions on past market anomalies (2021), and far lower interest rates (2020), expecting prices and/or rates to return to those glory days.

Strategies Around Reference Dependence

• Shift the focus from personal reference points to the broader market through regular more granular market updates through neighbourhood analytics vs analytics by city or large trading area, and weekly vs monthly statistics.
• Introduce automated valuation tools (AVMs on Geowarehouse, HPI valuation tool) to provide unbiased property valuations.
• Frame decisions around future opportunities rather than past benchmarks, reference pre and post pandemic growth numbers.

Risk Preferences

It’s all about gains and/or losses, people for the most part are high risk-adverse when it comes to gains, they follow “if it’s too good to be true it ain’t worth the risk” and prefer smaller ‘for sure’ gains than larger riskier returns. As far as losses go, people are risk-averse, willing to take risks to avoid overall losses.

Do any of these risk preferences sound familiar?

1. Buyers are fearful of becoming house-poor, thus opting to buy at the lower end of their budgets, in a fast rising market.
2. The notion that investors and/or savvy buyers feel there is upside in purchasing distressed properties, or properties being sold under a divorce situation etc.
3. Homebuyers choosing fixed mortgages over variable to avoid uncertainty in future monthly payments.
4. Sellers or landlords accepting lower offers during slow markets to either mitigate or avoid the risk of holding onto the property longer.

Content and Tools Around Risk Preferences

• Provide tools that simulate different outcomes based on risk levels (e.g., fixed-rate vs. variable-rate mortgages , paying out penalties in order to convert to a lower rate).
• Create balanced investment guides highlighting how diversification can reduce risk in a real estate portfolio.
• Lean in on professional advice from home inspectors, contractors and mortgage specialists to create content around mitigating risk.
• Show buyers examples of emerging neighbourhoods which are underpriced compared to more fast paced adjacent neighbourhoods. 

Probability Weighting

People overweigh low-probability events (e.g., lottery wins, higher than normal mortgage defaults) and underweigh high-probability events which leads to prolonged and often distorted decision-making.

Do any of these examples of probability weighting sound familiar?

1. Buyers overestimate the likelihood of finding a better deal later and delay making offers, missing out on good opportunities.
2. Investors/buyers overweigh rare events, such as the housing bubble, leading them to avoid real estate altogether.
3. Sellers overestimate the chance of finding a buyer willing to pay a premium like that market inept out-of-town buyer, and hold out for unrealistic offers.
4. Sellers place undue weight on rare features (e.g., a home with solar panels) and over-shoot on an asking price.
5. Investors focus on lower priced micro pre-sale condos which have a highly nonfunctional layout, and in turn very low demand.

Content around probability weighting

• Present clear data (CMHC mortgage default report) showing realistic information around the probability of rare events, like housing crashes. 
• Share expert predictions about market trends (CMHC Housing Starts) to counter overestimation of rare events like extreme price drops
• Educate investors on spreading risk across various property types and locations.
• Teach buyers how to evaluate properties based on fundamentals (price per square foot, Home Price Index, return on investments of home improvements).

Framing Effect

The way choices are presented (as gains or losses) significantly influences decisions. For instance, people may choose differently when the same outcome is framed as avoiding a loss rather than achieving a gain. The real estate industry has been built on framing, maybe too much so. Some might argue it still works, and some might say client’s see right through it.

Do any of these examples of the framing effect sound familiar?

1. A listing framed as “priced below market value” attracts more interest than one framed as “priced competitively.”
2. Mid-century modern furniture can make buyers imagine a trendy lifestyle, influencing their willingness to pay more.
3. Describing a home as “luxurious” or “executive-style” frames it as high-end, even if features are standard.
4. Buyers perceive a property described as “cozy” more positively than one described as “small,” even if both are identical.
5. Sellers respond differently when told “you could lose $10,000 by waiting” versus “you could gain $10,000 by selling now.”
6. Real estate agents frame offers as “close to asking price” rather than emphasizing how far below it they are to encourage acceptance.
7. Framing a location as “family-friendly” or “up-and-coming” makes buyers perceive added value beyond the property itself.
8. Marketing phrases like “won’t last long” influence buyers’ urgency and decision-making.

Content and best practices around the framing effect.

• Ensure all marketing materials present both gains and losses factually (be transparent) avoiding manipulative framing techniques.
• Use balanced frames that highlight both the benefits and risks of a property purchase (e.g., “Affordable price with potential for growth”).
• Provide guides helping buyers and sellers identify framing biases and make informed decisions based on facts rather than presentation style.
• There is a fine line between something being staged to bring about a liveability emotion vs the home being over-staged which invokes a distrust on the part of the buyer, where they ask “are these sellers trying to hide something or divert my attention with this over-the-top furniture.”
• Run A/B tests on marketing materials using different frames but ensure they align with factual data about the property or market trends.
• Create campaigns explaining how framing can influence perception and teaching consumers how to recognize it in real estate ads.

What Does This All Mean?

My intention was to create real-life decision situations, which are centred around the aquisition and/or the disposition of real estate. There is no doubt that we live in an environment where information is not in short supply, but good or even great information is very scarce. There is no magic bullet content creator which fits all situations, but the information exists and can be curated for your client’s needs to fill in some of their knowledge gaps. My best advice is to operate from a place of transparency and objectivity, which may not make the so-called sale, but will increase your client’s trust in you 10 fold.